Commerce Secretary Gary Locke urges House Republicans to end their blockade on President Obama's nominee to head the 2010 Census. See the AP story below.
Locke urges end to GOP block on census nominee
By HOPE YEN – 4 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Commerce Secretary Gary Locke is urging an immediate end to a GOP block on President Barack Obama's nominee to lead the 2010 census.
Robert Groves, a veteran survey researcher with the University of Michigan, was easily approved by a Senate committee last month. But Republicans have stalled Groves' full confirmation vote for undisclosed reasons.
With the census just months away, Locke said in a statement Wednesday that the government cannot wait "any longer" for Groves' confirmation. He said the longer the delay, the greater the risk to the accuracy and success of the census.
Under Senate rules, a senator can hold up a nomination without going public or providing a reason. Groves is among roughly 30 Obama nominees currently in limbo.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Census projections: A look at the world's aging population
The Census Bureau has made several projections based on available data regarding the world's aging population. This should be of interest to American policymakers, as it has important implications not only for Social Security, but for our current workforce trends.
Check out the AP's take below:
World's 65 and older population to triple by 2050
By HOPE YEN – 20 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The world's 65-and-older population will triple by mid-century to 1 in 6 people, leaving the U.S. and other nations struggling to support the elderly.
The number of senior citizens has already jumped 23 percent since 2000 to 516 million, according to census estimates released on Tuesday. That's more than double the growth rate for the general population.
The world's population has been graying for many years due to declining births and medical advances that have extended life spans. As the fastest-growing age group, seniors now comprise just under 8 percent of the world's 6.8 billion people. But demographers warn the biggest shift is yet to come. They cite a coming wave of retirements from baby boomers and China's Red Guard generation that will shrink pensions and add to rising health care costs.
Germany, Italy, Japan and Monaco have the most senior citizens, with 20 percent or more of their people 65 and older.
In the U.S., residents who are 65 and older currently make up 13 percent of the population, but that will double to 88.5 million by mid-century. In two years, the oldest of the baby boomers will start turning 65. The baby boomer bulge will continue padding the senior population year after year, growing to 1 in 5 U.S. residents by 2030.
"The 2020s for most of the developed world will be an era of fiscal crisis, with a real long-term stagnation in economic growth and ugly political battles over old-age benefits cuts," said Richard Jackson, director of the Global Aging Initiative at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"In emerging countries like China, they will face the real prospect of a humanitarian aging crisis," he said.
China's current ratio of 16 elderly people per 100 workers is set to double by 2025, then double again to 61 by 2050, due partly to family planning policies that limit most families to a single child, Jackson said. Without a universal pension system to cover all elderly, millions of older Chinese could fall into poverty, creating social and political unrest and shock waves that could ripple through the global economy given the country's economic heft.
In the U.S., immigration of younger residents has helped slow aging of the total population. Still, Medicare is projected to become insolvent by 2017, and President Barack Obama has said that overhauling Social Security and Medicare is critical. In making reforms, Obama and a Democratic-controlled Congress risk alienating a 65-and-older voting group by cutting benefits or their younger generation by raising payroll taxes.
"As they age, boomer support on issues like Medicare and retirement security will be just as key for continued Democratic success as the party's hold on younger minority voters," said William H. Frey, a demographer at Brookings Institution, citing higher voting rates among seniors who could prove important in key states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri.
The Census Bureau's international estimates also show:
_Only 5 percent of Africa's population is projected to be 65 and older in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa, with high fertility and AIDS cases roiling parts of the region, is home to the youngest people. Leading the way is Uganda where the median age is just 15.
_About 1.53 billion, or 16 percent, of the world's estimated 9.3 billion people in 2050 will be 65 and older.
_Europe will continue to be the grayest region, with 29 percent of its population projected to be 65 and older by 2050. It aging population has prompted governments, including Austria, France and Russia, in recent years to provide incentives such as bonus payouts, tax benefits and free school books to couples who have children.
_In Latin America, known for its high fertility, youths ages 19 and younger outpace the 65-and-older group by more than 5 to 1. But by 2050, led by a dropoff in births in countries such as Brazil and Mexico, senior citizens will jump to 18 percent of the population compared to 25 percent for youths. Faced with its aging population, Cuba recently raised its retirement age by 5 years, delaying payment of pensions.
The Census Bureau updates projections each year on a variety of global demographic trends, including fertility and mortality rates and life expectancy. Its estimates are separate from figures released by the United Nations Population Division.
Check out the AP's take below:
World's 65 and older population to triple by 2050
By HOPE YEN – 20 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — The world's 65-and-older population will triple by mid-century to 1 in 6 people, leaving the U.S. and other nations struggling to support the elderly.
The number of senior citizens has already jumped 23 percent since 2000 to 516 million, according to census estimates released on Tuesday. That's more than double the growth rate for the general population.
The world's population has been graying for many years due to declining births and medical advances that have extended life spans. As the fastest-growing age group, seniors now comprise just under 8 percent of the world's 6.8 billion people. But demographers warn the biggest shift is yet to come. They cite a coming wave of retirements from baby boomers and China's Red Guard generation that will shrink pensions and add to rising health care costs.
Germany, Italy, Japan and Monaco have the most senior citizens, with 20 percent or more of their people 65 and older.
In the U.S., residents who are 65 and older currently make up 13 percent of the population, but that will double to 88.5 million by mid-century. In two years, the oldest of the baby boomers will start turning 65. The baby boomer bulge will continue padding the senior population year after year, growing to 1 in 5 U.S. residents by 2030.
"The 2020s for most of the developed world will be an era of fiscal crisis, with a real long-term stagnation in economic growth and ugly political battles over old-age benefits cuts," said Richard Jackson, director of the Global Aging Initiative at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"In emerging countries like China, they will face the real prospect of a humanitarian aging crisis," he said.
China's current ratio of 16 elderly people per 100 workers is set to double by 2025, then double again to 61 by 2050, due partly to family planning policies that limit most families to a single child, Jackson said. Without a universal pension system to cover all elderly, millions of older Chinese could fall into poverty, creating social and political unrest and shock waves that could ripple through the global economy given the country's economic heft.
In the U.S., immigration of younger residents has helped slow aging of the total population. Still, Medicare is projected to become insolvent by 2017, and President Barack Obama has said that overhauling Social Security and Medicare is critical. In making reforms, Obama and a Democratic-controlled Congress risk alienating a 65-and-older voting group by cutting benefits or their younger generation by raising payroll taxes.
"As they age, boomer support on issues like Medicare and retirement security will be just as key for continued Democratic success as the party's hold on younger minority voters," said William H. Frey, a demographer at Brookings Institution, citing higher voting rates among seniors who could prove important in key states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri.
The Census Bureau's international estimates also show:
_Only 5 percent of Africa's population is projected to be 65 and older in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa, with high fertility and AIDS cases roiling parts of the region, is home to the youngest people. Leading the way is Uganda where the median age is just 15.
_About 1.53 billion, or 16 percent, of the world's estimated 9.3 billion people in 2050 will be 65 and older.
_Europe will continue to be the grayest region, with 29 percent of its population projected to be 65 and older by 2050. It aging population has prompted governments, including Austria, France and Russia, in recent years to provide incentives such as bonus payouts, tax benefits and free school books to couples who have children.
_In Latin America, known for its high fertility, youths ages 19 and younger outpace the 65-and-older group by more than 5 to 1. But by 2050, led by a dropoff in births in countries such as Brazil and Mexico, senior citizens will jump to 18 percent of the population compared to 25 percent for youths. Faced with its aging population, Cuba recently raised its retirement age by 5 years, delaying payment of pensions.
The Census Bureau updates projections each year on a variety of global demographic trends, including fertility and mortality rates and life expectancy. Its estimates are separate from figures released by the United Nations Population Division.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Census Analysis: Population shifts could mean Republican gains
Dr. Marty Wiseman of MSU penned an interesting analysis based on current Census projections for MS's population. Read it below:
SUMMER ENTERTAINMENT: A LOOK AT THE CENSUS NUMBERS
What does one do at an institute of government when the hot hazy days of summer arrive?
In addition to attending a variety of educational meetings one might liven things up by looking at numbers. Perhaps this is why government institute types pick up pejorative labels like “policy wonk” or “bean counters”. If one is inclined to look down the road only a few short months an examination of the projected census numbers do indeed have a bearing on the current political climate in Mississippi and more importantly how that picture is destined to change significantly. Of immediate concern are the changes that will come to the makeup of the Mississippi Legislature. As far as reapportionment of Congress is concerned, we appear to be safe for 2010. However, if current trends continue Mississippi may be faced with the loss of yet another congressional seat by 2020.
As has been discussed in this space before, redistricting of the Mississippi Legislature has been, until the most recent decennial censuses, a fairly docile exercise. Each house would put together its plan and with the expected amount of grousing swap it with the other house for approval of resolutions redrawing the lines of the Senate and House districts. This is done by resolution. Thus, the Governor has no veto power over the plans. This approach was carried out with a minimum of rancor back in the days when the governor was a Democrat and the overwhelming majority of the House and Senate were also Democrats. One need only observe the current budget standoff to understand that Mississippi is now thoroughly a two-party state. The fact that the Senate tends toward the Republican agenda and the Democratic approach holds serve in the House puts a premium on how those two ends of the capital are organized. There are certain principles based on the tale of the numbers that are for the most part set in concrete.
By census time the population in Mississippi should be right at 3,000,000. This would mean that based on established laws that require virtually equal districts a district for the election of a member of the Mississippi House must have just short of 25,000 in population. That figure for a Senate seat would be just over 57,000. Census projections have recently appeared for the 2008 leading up to the actual count for 2010.
What do they tell us about the political fight down the road? First of all, the projections have the population of Mississippi growing at a 3.3% rate since the 2000 census as compared to a 8.0% clip for the nation as a whole. There will be more about that on another day. When examining the data that will impact the makeup of the legislature there are some revealing shifts. A total of 39 counties in Mississippi stand to lose population if the census projections are accurate. A look at the biggest gainers and the biggest losers is quite instructive. All of the top 10 biggest losers percentage-wise are either Mississippi Delta counties or counties farther south along the Mississippi River. They range from a 27.1% decrease in Issaquena County to an 8.8% loss in Adams County. These counties have the highest African-American population in the state and the highest concentration of Democratic legislators in Jackson.
On the flip side, the counties that are the seven largest gainers are mirror opposites of the loser counties. Three of the top four, DeSoto, Madison, and Rankin are consistently the most Republican leaning counties in Mississippi and that would be as expected since these are typical Republican strongholds as the more affluent suburban areas around larger cities. Lamar County is the other county in the top 4, and it also has characteristics similar to the others as a suburb of the rapidly growing Hattiesburg area. Interestingly, the remaining three counties in the 2008 high growth projected counties are Pearl River, Stone, and George which have seen tremendous growth since Hurricane Katrina. Many of the remaining counties that have lost population are the more rural counties in Mississippi.
So, at this point, what do these numbers mean? First the lines are already being drawn in the battle of the respective parties to save seats for the partisan debates ahead. The Democrats by virtue of their majority position should have somewhat the upper hand, at least as far as the House is concerned. But the census numbers are clearly working against the Democrats on their home turf. The 44% population increase in DeSoto County makes it the 32nd fastest growing county in the nation, and in Mississippi that is seemingly a big gain for the Republicans. Thus, as things currently appear the numbers alone would portend a shift in several districts from Democratic leaning to Republican leaning. But there are many options far reconfiguration that could minimize Republican gains or minimize Democratic losses depending on your point of view. If the current philosophical battles over the budget are any indication, the war to come over the partisan makeup of the legislature for the decade of 2011 to 2021 will be one for the ages.
SUMMER ENTERTAINMENT: A LOOK AT THE CENSUS NUMBERS
What does one do at an institute of government when the hot hazy days of summer arrive?
In addition to attending a variety of educational meetings one might liven things up by looking at numbers. Perhaps this is why government institute types pick up pejorative labels like “policy wonk” or “bean counters”. If one is inclined to look down the road only a few short months an examination of the projected census numbers do indeed have a bearing on the current political climate in Mississippi and more importantly how that picture is destined to change significantly. Of immediate concern are the changes that will come to the makeup of the Mississippi Legislature. As far as reapportionment of Congress is concerned, we appear to be safe for 2010. However, if current trends continue Mississippi may be faced with the loss of yet another congressional seat by 2020.
As has been discussed in this space before, redistricting of the Mississippi Legislature has been, until the most recent decennial censuses, a fairly docile exercise. Each house would put together its plan and with the expected amount of grousing swap it with the other house for approval of resolutions redrawing the lines of the Senate and House districts. This is done by resolution. Thus, the Governor has no veto power over the plans. This approach was carried out with a minimum of rancor back in the days when the governor was a Democrat and the overwhelming majority of the House and Senate were also Democrats. One need only observe the current budget standoff to understand that Mississippi is now thoroughly a two-party state. The fact that the Senate tends toward the Republican agenda and the Democratic approach holds serve in the House puts a premium on how those two ends of the capital are organized. There are certain principles based on the tale of the numbers that are for the most part set in concrete.
By census time the population in Mississippi should be right at 3,000,000. This would mean that based on established laws that require virtually equal districts a district for the election of a member of the Mississippi House must have just short of 25,000 in population. That figure for a Senate seat would be just over 57,000. Census projections have recently appeared for the 2008 leading up to the actual count for 2010.
What do they tell us about the political fight down the road? First of all, the projections have the population of Mississippi growing at a 3.3% rate since the 2000 census as compared to a 8.0% clip for the nation as a whole. There will be more about that on another day. When examining the data that will impact the makeup of the legislature there are some revealing shifts. A total of 39 counties in Mississippi stand to lose population if the census projections are accurate. A look at the biggest gainers and the biggest losers is quite instructive. All of the top 10 biggest losers percentage-wise are either Mississippi Delta counties or counties farther south along the Mississippi River. They range from a 27.1% decrease in Issaquena County to an 8.8% loss in Adams County. These counties have the highest African-American population in the state and the highest concentration of Democratic legislators in Jackson.
On the flip side, the counties that are the seven largest gainers are mirror opposites of the loser counties. Three of the top four, DeSoto, Madison, and Rankin are consistently the most Republican leaning counties in Mississippi and that would be as expected since these are typical Republican strongholds as the more affluent suburban areas around larger cities. Lamar County is the other county in the top 4, and it also has characteristics similar to the others as a suburb of the rapidly growing Hattiesburg area. Interestingly, the remaining three counties in the 2008 high growth projected counties are Pearl River, Stone, and George which have seen tremendous growth since Hurricane Katrina. Many of the remaining counties that have lost population are the more rural counties in Mississippi.
So, at this point, what do these numbers mean? First the lines are already being drawn in the battle of the respective parties to save seats for the partisan debates ahead. The Democrats by virtue of their majority position should have somewhat the upper hand, at least as far as the House is concerned. But the census numbers are clearly working against the Democrats on their home turf. The 44% population increase in DeSoto County makes it the 32nd fastest growing county in the nation, and in Mississippi that is seemingly a big gain for the Republicans. Thus, as things currently appear the numbers alone would portend a shift in several districts from Democratic leaning to Republican leaning. But there are many options far reconfiguration that could minimize Republican gains or minimize Democratic losses depending on your point of view. If the current philosophical battles over the budget are any indication, the war to come over the partisan makeup of the legislature for the decade of 2011 to 2021 will be one for the ages.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Governator: Californians count
Governor Schwarzenegger forms a Complete Count Committee (much like the MS Complete Count Committee).
See the announcement here or below...
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today announced the creation of the California Complete Count Committee (Committee) to ensure a complete count for the 2010 Census.
“Every Californian counts,” Governor Schwarzenegger said. “The Census determines how the distribution of more than $300 billion in federal funds goes to local, state and tribal governments each year in California. We must reach out to all Californians across the state to make certain everyone is counted so that California gets its fair share of federal dollars and representation in congress.”
The Committee will represent the diverse population, geography and organizations in California. Members will offer their expertise and insights to develop a robust outreach strategy that leverages and capitalizes on existing outreach and community touch points, all in an effort to avoid an undercount and the possible loss of a congressional seat. Election Data Services has reported that California may lose congressional representation for the first time in its 150 year history.
The Committee will work in close partnership with the U.S. Census Bureau to leverage federal resources at the statewide level to coordinate outreach in the most effective way possible.
The decennial Census is mandated by the U.S. Constitution and participation is required by law. The questionnaire for the upcoming 2010 Census will be one of the shortest in the history: just 10 questions that will take only 10 minutes to complete. All responses are kept strictly confidential.
See the announcement here or below...
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today announced the creation of the California Complete Count Committee (Committee) to ensure a complete count for the 2010 Census.
“Every Californian counts,” Governor Schwarzenegger said. “The Census determines how the distribution of more than $300 billion in federal funds goes to local, state and tribal governments each year in California. We must reach out to all Californians across the state to make certain everyone is counted so that California gets its fair share of federal dollars and representation in congress.”
The Committee will represent the diverse population, geography and organizations in California. Members will offer their expertise and insights to develop a robust outreach strategy that leverages and capitalizes on existing outreach and community touch points, all in an effort to avoid an undercount and the possible loss of a congressional seat. Election Data Services has reported that California may lose congressional representation for the first time in its 150 year history.
The Committee will work in close partnership with the U.S. Census Bureau to leverage federal resources at the statewide level to coordinate outreach in the most effective way possible.
The decennial Census is mandated by the U.S. Constitution and participation is required by law. The questionnaire for the upcoming 2010 Census will be one of the shortest in the history: just 10 questions that will take only 10 minutes to complete. All responses are kept strictly confidential.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
GOP blocks Census head confirmation
From the Wall Street Journal:
WASHINGTON -- Senate Republicans are blocking a vote on the nomination of Robert Groves to be the Census Bureau's director, leaving the agency without a leader less than a year before the 2010 nationwide head count.
Dr. Groves, President Barack Obama's pick to lead the bureau, was approved easily by the Senate homeland-security committee in May, but Republicans blocked a confirmation vote last week. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said Republicans weren't yet in agreement on the nominee.
It is unclear why Republicans are blocking the vote. A McConnell spokeswoman, Jennifer Morris, said she had no information on the delay.
Dr. Groves, director of the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center and a former Census Bureau official, has raised concerns among mainly Republican lawmakers because he is an expert in sampling, the use of statistical adjustments to compensate for undercounted populations. Dr. Groves has said he won't use the practice for the 2010 count.
"Every day that goes by that the Census Bureau does not have a director that is responsible for steering the ship, the risk to the Census in terms of its operational success grows great," said Terri Ann Lowenthal, who headed the Obama transition team's effort on the Census.
Preparations are well under way for the 2010 count. In recent decades, the count has been plagued by data-collection problems in low-income urban areas and remote rural areas. Engaging undocumented immigrants, who are hesitant to provide personal information, has always been difficult.
The bureau is in need of a figure to publicly emphasize the importance of the decennial count, Ms. Lowenthal said, and without a director, this has been all but impossible
WASHINGTON -- Senate Republicans are blocking a vote on the nomination of Robert Groves to be the Census Bureau's director, leaving the agency without a leader less than a year before the 2010 nationwide head count.
Dr. Groves, President Barack Obama's pick to lead the bureau, was approved easily by the Senate homeland-security committee in May, but Republicans blocked a confirmation vote last week. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said Republicans weren't yet in agreement on the nominee.
It is unclear why Republicans are blocking the vote. A McConnell spokeswoman, Jennifer Morris, said she had no information on the delay.
Dr. Groves, director of the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center and a former Census Bureau official, has raised concerns among mainly Republican lawmakers because he is an expert in sampling, the use of statistical adjustments to compensate for undercounted populations. Dr. Groves has said he won't use the practice for the 2010 count.
"Every day that goes by that the Census Bureau does not have a director that is responsible for steering the ship, the risk to the Census in terms of its operational success grows great," said Terri Ann Lowenthal, who headed the Obama transition team's effort on the Census.
Preparations are well under way for the 2010 count. In recent decades, the count has been plagued by data-collection problems in low-income urban areas and remote rural areas. Engaging undocumented immigrants, who are hesitant to provide personal information, has always been difficult.
The bureau is in need of a figure to publicly emphasize the importance of the decennial count, Ms. Lowenthal said, and without a director, this has been all but impossible
More Census critiques...
Check it out:
Washington Post - More Census woes
www.MyTwoCensus.com (They have an interesting article regarding "FedEx Gate" - hmm)
Washington Post - More Census woes
www.MyTwoCensus.com (They have an interesting article regarding "FedEx Gate" - hmm)
NYT: "Welcome to the one step forward, two steps backward 2010 Census"
From Monday's NY Times editorial board...
Welcome once again to the one-step forward, two-steps backward world of the 2010 census. With little more than six months before the start of the next count, the Census Bureau still doesn’t have a director. And on Tuesday, the bureau’s budget faces a crucial vote by House appropriators who must resist the temptation to shortchange the agency yet again.
The Obama administration inherited a Census Bureau that is ill prepared, after years of meddling and mismanagement, to conduct the upcoming count. In April, President Obama finally nominated Robert M. Groves, a top sociologist and survey expert, to lead the bureau, and in mid-May the Senate held Mr. Groves’s confirmation hearing. At long last — and not a moment too soon — the census seemed to be getting back on track.
More than three weeks later, Mr. Groves has yet to be confirmed. He is the latest target of an unexplained hold by one or more anonymous Republican senators. (Under recent Senate rule changes, it’s hard but not impossible to keep such a hold going for several weeks.) If it endures, it would take 60 votes to confirm Mr. Groves.
It is hard to imagine the public interest that is being served by the hold. It is easy, unfortunately, to imagine the political interest. A leaderless Census Bureau is unlikely to pull off an accurate count. Inaccurate tallies tend to favor Republicans, because a bad census misses hard-to-count groups that tilt Democratic, like minorities and immigrants, thus over-representing easy-to-count suburbanites who tilt Republican.
And then there is the bureau’s budget. Mr. Obama wisely requested $7.4 billion for next year — a 135 percent increase, reflecting the fact that the actual count will take place in 2010. The subcommittee in charge of the census approved the amount. But what the full committee will do is an open question, especially since the census budget is in a bill that also provides financing for dozens of other activities — including projects at the Department of Justice, NASA and the National Science Foundation — none of which have fared as well.
The Census Bureau needs a director and all the money that has been requested. There’s no more time to waste.
Welcome once again to the one-step forward, two-steps backward world of the 2010 census. With little more than six months before the start of the next count, the Census Bureau still doesn’t have a director. And on Tuesday, the bureau’s budget faces a crucial vote by House appropriators who must resist the temptation to shortchange the agency yet again.
The Obama administration inherited a Census Bureau that is ill prepared, after years of meddling and mismanagement, to conduct the upcoming count. In April, President Obama finally nominated Robert M. Groves, a top sociologist and survey expert, to lead the bureau, and in mid-May the Senate held Mr. Groves’s confirmation hearing. At long last — and not a moment too soon — the census seemed to be getting back on track.
More than three weeks later, Mr. Groves has yet to be confirmed. He is the latest target of an unexplained hold by one or more anonymous Republican senators. (Under recent Senate rule changes, it’s hard but not impossible to keep such a hold going for several weeks.) If it endures, it would take 60 votes to confirm Mr. Groves.
It is hard to imagine the public interest that is being served by the hold. It is easy, unfortunately, to imagine the political interest. A leaderless Census Bureau is unlikely to pull off an accurate count. Inaccurate tallies tend to favor Republicans, because a bad census misses hard-to-count groups that tilt Democratic, like minorities and immigrants, thus over-representing easy-to-count suburbanites who tilt Republican.
And then there is the bureau’s budget. Mr. Obama wisely requested $7.4 billion for next year — a 135 percent increase, reflecting the fact that the actual count will take place in 2010. The subcommittee in charge of the census approved the amount. But what the full committee will do is an open question, especially since the census budget is in a bill that also provides financing for dozens of other activities — including projects at the Department of Justice, NASA and the National Science Foundation — none of which have fared as well.
The Census Bureau needs a director and all the money that has been requested. There’s no more time to waste.
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