Friday, October 30, 2009

NYTimes: Analysis of the Vitter Amendment

A Republican senator’s proposal to count only United States citizens when reapportioning Congress would cost California five seats and New York and Illinois one each, according to an independent analysis of census data released Tuesday. Texas, which is projected to gain three seats after the 2010 census, would get only one.

The proposed change would spare Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan and Pennsylvania the expected loss of one seat each. Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and South Carolina would each gain a seat.

If every resident — citizens and noncitizens alike — is counted in 2010, as the Census Bureau usually does, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Utah would gain one seat each and Texas would get three, the analysis found.

Losing one seat each would be Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the analysis of census data through 2008 by demographers at Queens College of the City University of New York.

The Constitution, as amended, requires that Congressional districts be reapportioned on the basis of a count every 10 years of the “whole number of persons” in each state. The 10-question 2010 census form does not ask about citizenship, but the Census Bureau includes that question in other forms, including the 2006-8 American Community Survey released on Tuesday.

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